Consumer Confidence Index Shows Trust in Local Economy

Source: Macau Daily Times

Tuesday 11th July, 2017


Photo: Macau Daily Times

Consumer Confidence Index Shows Trust in Local Economy

The Macau Consumer Confidence Index (MCCI) for the second quarter of 2017 indicated only one of the six sub-indexes in MCCI increased compared with the first quarter of 2017, that one being the “local economy”.

The “local economy” sub- index was 102.28, which continued the previous quarter’s upward trend with an increase of 0.85 percent, showing Macanese consumers’ continuous optimism about the local economy’s overall performance.

All of the other sub-indexes decreased compared to the first quarter of 2017. While the “employment” sub-index declined by 1.15 percent over the first quarter of 2017, it was 105.52 in the second quarter of 2017, still above the 100-point “having confidence” level, and was the highest among the six sub-indexes. This reveals that Macau consumers tended to be cautiously optimistic about their employment in the labor markets.

The “consumer prices” sub-index was 74.22 in the second quarter of 2017, a decline of 0.75 percent from the first quarter of 2017, implying a slightly increased concern of inflation.

The “living standards” sub index was 97.02, a growth of 0.4 percent to the first quarter of 2017, indicating a slightly increased living pressure of Macau residents due to local inflation.

The “housing purchase” sub-index was still the lowest (51.16) among the six sub-indexes, which continued the previous quarter’s downward trend, with a drop of 4.15 percent from the first quarter of 2017. This suggests a further worsening of the already-negative sentiment among potential residential home buyers.

The “stock investment” sub-index was 81.63, with a quarter-to-quarter decrease of 3.27 percent, reflecting a significant drop in the willingness of local consumers to invest in the volatile stock market.

The survey results from the second quarter of 2017 showed a decrease in local consumers’ overall confidence.

The “local economy” sub- index continued the previous upward trend and went back to above the 100-point “having confidence” level.

Customers were cautiously optimistic about “employment”, with relatively stable confidence in “consumer prices” and “living standards”, however, confidence again declined in “housing purchase,” and confidence significantly declined in “stock investment.”

The previous 34 consecutive MCCI surveys had all shown that consumer confidence increased substantially with education levels.

In particular, the 35-quarter average MCCI for consumers with tertiary education was 4.59 points (5.4 percent) and 9.92 points (12.5 percent) higher than those for consumers with only secondary and primary education respectively. MCCI for consumers with only primary education tended to be more volatile across different years.

Based on the survey design, index scores range from 0 to 200, where 0 means “no confidence”, and a score of 100 means a neutral impression, and a score of 200 indicates “full confidence”.

In short, index scores below 100 suggest “lack of confidence” while index scores above 100 imply “having confidence”.

The Institute for Sustainable Development (TISD) of Macau University of Science and Technology (MUST) used its computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) system to conduct the MCCI survey from June 13 to 19, with 1,015 Macau residents aged 18 or above randomly selected and successfully interviewed to compile the index.

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